Liquid Energy

2Aug/08Off

Liquid Energy

High Oil Prices Mean Invest in Coal-to-liquid Technology (ctl)

Who in their right mind would consider a Coal-To-Liquid Technology(CTL) investment when we have plenty of oil supplies? You should. Because we dont.

Yes, oil prices are high. But crude production has peaked. Output in all major fields is fixed, or is declining. New oil fields are smaller and harder to get at, and extraction techniques are getting more difficult and expensive. Energy demand around the world is rocketting. Oil prices are rising steeply. Increasing political unrest means uncertain supplies, and the markets hate uncertainty.

That suggests oil substitute fuels like liquid coal will be needed soon. The obvious oil substitutes-liquid natural gas, oil sands, biofuels, fuel cells, renewable sources and nuclear power can't meeting total demand at a reasonable cost for the next decade at least.

What is likely to be the solution? Large supplies of coal. Combined with a long-used proven technology which can convert coal into a clean pumpable liquid with low burnoff emissions- CTL. Both are now readily available at competitive costs.

There are vast available coal deposits in the USA, China, India ,Canada, and Australia, allowing enough liquid coal for scores, maybe hundreds of years, even if demand accelerates.

Note that the Middle East has declining oil and virtually no coal.

Once oil prices rise above $35 a barrel, coal-to-liquid technology providing liquid coal at $20-$30/barrel begins looking very attractive as an oil alternative. Presently oil prices remain above $60, show no sign of descending and could peak at $100-$150 a barrel - IF available from anywhere. This would potentially lead to gasoline at $8/gallon at US pumps and widespread recession.

Other technologies such as coal gasification and gas-to-liquids (GTL) are currently cheaper than coal liquefaction and so some companies afraid of a downturn in oil prices and seeking the best current investment returns may be tempted by those instead.

However China and the US-now the two major powerhouses of world industry-are likely to opt for liquid coal on the basis of huge cheap domestic supplies and the incentive of non reliance of volatile outside markets.

China is an fast awaking industrial giant. They need vast amounts of energy badly for electricity for factories homes and schools, have little oil but lots of coal. Trouble is, the coal is in the north, and industrial developments in the south, China is huge and the roads and railways are presently poor.

It's hard to transport solid coal then burn it and create lots of pollution, but much easier and ultimately cheaper to pump clean liquid coal by pipeline.

The government there doesn’t argue or debate issues with the public-with collaboration with Royal Dutch Shell, they have already started to build a liquid coal plant in the Ningxia region, with three more on the way.

Also, consider the car. Demand is growing worldwide. But so are demands for cleaner more efficient vehicles. Liquid coal can be used to make both gasoline or diesel fuel. But the most ecofriendly efficient car of the near future probably WON'T be a electric-gasoline hybrid but an electric-diesel hybrid. This will have similar refinement and performance but far better overall miles per gallon, lower emissions.

Also note that China and India plan to break into the car production market and will be in a powerful position to provide cheap clean fuel-efficient cars to their own vast markets and overseas.

Extra pressure on car manufacturers (dependent on crude oil and suffering from high production costs) and already hovering on the brink of bankruptcy in the US? Or to switch production heavily towards hybrids?

Liquid coal - way to go!

Present coal plants can't and wont use oil for a fuel- burn profile is wrong and way too expensive. However any existing coal plant that presently burns coal will be able to burn liquid coal too. Efficient, kinder to the environment, no sulfur, mercury or ash AND less smells dust and fumes.

Expect politicians to push CTL and give it an easy tax ride for the same reasons they are presently favoring biofuels like ethanol:

(1) there’s the lure of a vote winning rural job-creation side from an industry otherwise viewed as declining.

(2) Many Western voters and investors are getting worried about the security implications of depending on their energy supplies from increasingly unfriendly or unstable nations.

(3) Many environmentalists, given the right conditions (e.g. high carbon capture at CTL plants, alternatives like nuclear energy), are likely to warm to CTL because of its overall cleaner profile.

Many firms are already investing in CTL. Forget oil and other oil substitutes for the moment. Look into it now if you are interested, and look for CTL specialists like Headwaters, Syntroleum Corp, and Rentech, and particuliarly, the highly experienced South African company, Sasol.